STRATEGY · 8 MIN READ
What is Polymarket Merge Arbitrage? The $39.6M Strategy Explained
The complete breakdown of how YES + NO tokens create instant risk-free profit opportunities, why the gap exists, how to find it, and how to execute the on-chain merge.
March 2026 · Pythia
MECHANICS · 6 MIN READ
Polymarket Fee Structure Explained (2026) — Makers, Takers, and Zero-Fee Markets
The fee structure most retail traders get wrong. Which markets have zero fees, how the taker fee formula works, and how maker rebates can make your fee exposure negative.
March 2026 · Pythia
POSITION SIZING · 7 MIN READ
Kelly Criterion for Prediction Markets — Optimal Sizing for Polymarket Arb
How to size positions in merge arb using quarter-Kelly, worked examples at different capital levels, hard position caps, and the enhanced Kelly formula for execution uncertainty.
March 2026 · Pythia
BEGINNER GUIDE · 10 MIN READ
How to Start Polymarket Arbitrage in 2026 — Step by Step Guide
Complete beginner setup: wallet, USDC on Polygon, Polymarket account, scanning for gaps, executing your first merge arb trade, and what to expect at each capital level.
March 2026 · Pythia